Our daily series of 2010 threads continues, and today the SSP Recruitment Express is running at full steam through the Golden State.
Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited, meaning that many, many Democrats are salivating over the opportunity to take back the Governor’s mansion in California. There are a lot of potential names out there for Democrats (including Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, who has already announced his candidacy), but who would you like to see reach for the ring? And for the Republicans, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner seems to be their likeliest candidate, but will more names join the fray? (Paging Tom McClintock…)
On the Senate side, will Schwarzenegger actually challenge Barbara Boxer? It seems a bit unlikely to me at this point, but I guess you never know. If not, will any Republicans of note step forward (and I’m not sure if this guy really counts)?
And here’s an interesting wrinkle. One of the rumored candidates for the gubernatorial election is none other than Diane Feinstein. Assuming she ran and won, she would be in the rare position of appointing her own replacement in the Senate. If such a scenario actually happens, whom would you like to see Feinstein appoint? There are a lot of choices on California’s bench out there.
If he ends up losing in CA-04, (which is admittedly not looking very likely), if he wins he’ll probably stay in congress for at least a few years, until he realizes that the federal budget (unlike the California budget) doesn’t require a 2/3rds vote and he’s a powerless backbencher.
All of them except Feinstein are very progressive, but none of them are inspiring. We need a Howard Dean to shake up the CA establishment, and I don’t see one in the likely field. I’ll probably end up voting for Garamendi or Villagairosa (sp?), unless the anti-Feinstein wing coalesces around a different candidate. My ideal candidate would be Van Jones, but that’s not going to happen.
As for CA-Sen if, god forbid, Feinstein wins, maybe Secretary of State Debra Bowen?
a Gov. Feinstein would be that she wouldn’t be in the Senate anymore. On the other hand she’d get to appoint her successor, so that may cancel out the good side.
My favs for Gov:
– Jack O’Connell
– Gavin Newsom
– Loretta Sanchez
– Debra Bowen
And should Feinstein win and get to appoint a successor to the Senate I’d like to see one of the following get the nod:
– Hilda Solis
– Linda Sanchez
– Loretta Sanchez
– Karen Bass
– Jackie Speier
– Xavier Becerra
It seems to me that Boxer’s been pretty aggressive about fundraising for a while now (I happen to get emails from her and you’d be extremely surprised about how many fundraising emails I’ve gotten). At a minimum, I think Boxer’s worried about Ahnold running.
or maybe Antonio Villagorso, perhaps a black candidate, though I don’ know of any prominent figures.
But I also like Brown and Garamendi. The person I most want to run and will not is Leon Panetta.
He has done a decent job as Controller and the one thing I like about John is that he is not mired in ethnic and local politics like a lot of possible Governor candidate from the legislature. The only down side is his name recognition is not as good… but unlike Garamendi, he is not a retread.
I really don’t see why Feinstein would want to give up the Senate for the hapless job of Governor but stranger things have happened. Schwarzenegger can challenge Boxer but he will lose… Unlike Feinstein, Boxer is actually very popular Senator in California.
How electable would Jerry Brown be for governor? It’s one thing to be elected AG, but governor might be another story. And maybe a bigger question is how desirable would that be? He’s been around a long, long time.
and win without major opposition.
As for the governors field. That’s going to be busy. The only people that I don’t really like are DiFi and Newsom. Unfortunately there isn’t anyone that I like much either. If Bowen ran I’d support her but I doubt she will. We’ll see how it plays out. I bet DiFi won’t run and Brown will win the primary and beat Meg Whittman in the GE.
On another front, Kamala Harris, the awesome DA in the Bay Area who has a very inspiring story has launched her campaign for Attorney General.
http://www.kamalaharris.org/home
I’ve read Meg Whitman, former e-Bay CEO, may be a candidate for the Republicans for governor. Admittedly, I’m pretty ignorant of CA state politics, but my impression is that a non-politician who may have more centrist appeal than most CA elected Republicans would have the best chance for the Red Team. Anyone more familiar with the situation want to venture a guess whether she would be a formidable candidate?
Democrats
Rob Reiner has been edging towards running for something for a few years. OTOH, Warren Beatty, perennial semi pseudo candidate is probably done with.
David Geffen may be Hollywood but he’s worth $6 billion (or was according to Wikipedia) and has been a long time donor and fund raiser. This year he raised $1.3 million for Obama. The downside is that he is openly gay. At 65 this might be his one and only chance so I suspect he’d really open up the money spigot.
Republicans
Darrell Issa. He financed the recall and got shoved aside by Arnold. Issa still has plenty of bucks, a seat in Congress to lend legitimacy, and lots of ambition.
Bill Simon. A statewide figure who can claim that his loss to Gray Davis was bogus since David hiod the looming electric rate crisis. Has money, too.
Right-wing Darrell Issa has no chance of getting elected governor of California, and Bill Simon–a joke to those few of us who remember him–has even less. I like Populista’s idea of Jerry Brown v Meg Whitman, with Brown the ultimate winner. That sounds plausible.
Apart from Whitman, Carly Fiorina might be another formidable Republican gubernatorial candidate. Of the current Republican elected officials, Steve Poizner is probably the only viable possibility. All three can claim to be moderates. The likelihood, however, is that the Democrat would win, even against one of these three.
I would guess that the Democratic candidate will be either Attorney General Brown, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, or L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, unless Senator Diane Feinstein decides to go for it, in which case it will probably be her. Any one of those four should prove a decent governor, especially if we can get rid of the 2/3 requirement in the legislature to pass the state budget. That relatively recent requirement gives Republicans a de facto veto over economic issues in the state.
I think Villaraigosa has been underestimated in this thread. Yes, he was an initial disappointment. But he’s been doing better lately. He seems to have gotten a mass transit initiative passed this November, which will radically transform L.A. for the better. That alone will rank him as one of the significant L.A. mayors. We’ll think of him every time we ride “the subway to the sea.”
Loretta Sanchez, incidentally, would be a terrible governor–Brown’s self-absorption combined with Feinstein’s pro-business assumptions. Debra Bowen, who is great, looks good for Senator some day, as do Jackie Speier and a number of other current Representatives.
This is not the topic of this thread. My apologies in advance.
After 8 yrs of Green and Republicans Presidency, Obama feels like a breath of fresh air. However, in Missouri, has Nader delivered the state to McCain? I sure would like to know.
For governor, both parties have oodles of possibilities, but almost all of them are too liberal or conservative. In each party there seems to be one moderate candidate at this point, and, unfortunately, California does not elect liberal Democrats to the governorship. It is more possible than not that the most centrist candidates from each party get nominated, those being Feinstein and Poisner. The “-wing” candidates will split their votes. At this time, I don’t think any progressive Democrat will win unless matched up against an uberconservative Republican, of which there is no shortage. That said, I’d love to see Steve Westley run again.
As for Senate, Dianne has always wanted to be governor, so if successful she appoints someone in her mold. Harman and Tauscher come to mind.
For Boxer’s seat, the only one who could beat her won’t run–that being Arnie. He likes being an executive, and would chafe in a role where he couldn’t be a decision-maker. Unlike a lot of posters state here, though, I believe Schwarzenegger is only temporarily weakened. He’s been there before and come back (everyone posited that he’d lose reelection, and he trounced Angelides). I’d bet that McClintock and Issa attempt to get the Republican banner.
The Democratic field for the governor’s race is truly enormous. San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom, attorney general and former governor Jerry Brown, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Rep. Loretta Sanchez, former controller Steve Westly and secretary of state Debra Bowen are all legitimate possibilities. I think any of them could win statewide.
I would prefer Brown, Newsom or Bowen get the nomination. The only problem with Newsom is whether his interesting personal life would hurt him in a general election.
The key here will be avoiding a divisive, expensive primary that drains resources and hobbles the eventual nominee. Westly and Phil Angelides savaged each other in the 2006 primary and by the time Angelides got the nomination, it was pretty much worthless.
I really hope Dianne Feinstein decides to serve out the remainder of her Senate term and then retire. She will be 77 years old in 2010. If she served eight years in Sacramento, she’d be 85 when she left office. Her chance to be governor passed in the early 1990’s when she chose a career in the Senate.
As for the Senate race, I would frankly be shocked if Arnold Schwarzenegger decided to run against Sen. Boxer. He’s in his 60’s, I doubt he’d want to start at the bottom of the totem pole in what’s likely to be the minority party. Some nobody state legislator will probably get the nomination and be swamped. Boxer will probably be the most well-funded incumbent in the 2010 cycle.
for the chance for chief exec power, plus constant cross country flights may be getting old for her. My guess is Meg Whitman, dot.com billionaire, will spend to get the Repub nom.
Who wins? It’ll be close between two pro-business “centrist” well-funded women. My guess is despite all her expensive campaign consultants and image-making, Whitman will make some rookie candidate mistake, and Feinstein squeaks by.
CA-Sen, my guess is Schwarzenegger will go for it; for the macho challenge of running, plus I think he has come to enjoy power.
The CA Repubs hate him but they’ll have no choice due to his celebrity status. But he hasn’t run into as tough a political campaigner as Boxer before who can lay every recent CA ill at his doorstep, and who’ll get re-elected.
Poor Ahnold. He’ll just have to go back to being a movie star making, say, $50M a film?
clooney for senate
My current home state! I haven’t decided yet whether to remain registered to vote here in 2010… But so far, all the Guv & Senate drama may be enough to keep me voting here at least through the 2010 primary.
– Governor: Let’s face the facts. This job is DiFi’s (Dianne Feinstein for you non-Californicators) if she wants it. Since it seems she wants it, the primary is probably game over. As much as I’d love to see Lt. Gov. John Garamendi or SF Mayor Gavin Newsom or even LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa a shot at this, I don’t think any of them has enough star power to overpower DiFi.
– Senate-B: Barbara Boxer is probably safe this cycle. I doubt Ahhnuld the Governator can ever handle NOT being the center of attention. And let’s face it, Washington already has too many attention seeking man-divas for Mr. Hollywood to make a scene. And if my neighboring Assembly Member, perpetual attention whore Chuck Devore, is the nominee, stick a fork in the CA GOP… Boxer wins in a landslide!
Senate-A: If DiFi becomes Governor in 2011, she’ll have a tough decision to make as soon as she comes to Sactown. Who will succeed her in the Senate? I’m handicapping Gavin Newsom as the early favorite with my own fabulous Congresswoman, Loretta Sanchez, and Villaraigosa as possible wild cards.